How can I tell if a market will be worth the cost before I sign up?

The Narrative

The Empathy

Signing up for a new market can feel like a leap of faith. The booth fee is due upfront, the calendar fills fast, and you're stuck wondering if the crowd will actually show up for what you sell. Vendors hear stories of sellout Saturdays and also hear about rainy days where barely anyone walks by. That uncertainty is stressful, especially when your inventory, time, and gas money are on the line.

The Education

Start with research methods that give you a realistic picture. Visit the market at the same time of day you'd vend and count foot traffic for 20-minute intervals. Check neighborhood demographics to confirm the audience matches your price point, dietary needs, or gift-buying habits. Ask for vendor reports or organizer summaries that share average sales, attendance, and vendor mix. These inputs help you estimate your expected sales range instead of relying on a single anecdote.

Next, use a simple decision framework so the data turns into a yes-or-no answer. Calculate a break-even number: booth fee + travel + inventory costs + your target hourly pay. Divide that total by your average item price to see how many sales you need. Then build a best-case, likely-case, and worst-case forecast using the traffic counts and vendor reports. If the likely-case clears your break-even and the worst-case still feels manageable, the market is probably worth testing.

The Solution

Build a repeatable checklist before every signup: confirm foot traffic counts, verify demographics, and request vendor stats. Plug those inputs into your break-even worksheet and give each market a simple score (green = clear profit, yellow = experimental, red = skip). Over time, compare your actual sales to the forecast so your decision framework gets smarter with every show. That way you're not guessing—you're choosing markets with confidence.